ReSolve’s own Dr Andrew Butler on Integrating Prediction with Optimization

Dec 23, 2022

Our guest this week was Dr. Andrew Butler, Chief Investment Officer here at ReSolve. He has an Honors B.Sc. in Applied Mathematics & Physics from Memorial University, an M.A. in Applied Mathematics & Statistics, Financial Engineering from York University, and a PhD from the University of Toronto, Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering. Our conversation covered:

 

• Mentors, studying optimization, machine learning and emulating similarities
• Comparing methodologies used in calculating oil reserves, with empirical finance
• Mathematics, known truths, soft axioms and assumptions
• Data science, tools and hypothesis tests in finance
• Comparing the definitions of “noise” and different scientific methods
• Regression types, relationships and features
• Existing models vs creating models with data
• Hyperparameters, universes, good decision-making and edges
• The fallacy of “The Efficient Frontier” in Modern Portfolio Theory
• Methods that make for good choices, and setting expectations
• Neural Networks, financial data extraction and optimization science
• Building complex models, integrating and optimizing predictions, and making decisions
• Counterintuitive predictions and “explainability” – integrated vs optimized models
• Optimizing for decision accuracy by minimizing prediction error
• Using Decision Trees, Ensembles and Boosting
• Market data and making predictions using de-coupled vs integrated approaches
• Training models and optimizing, going forward
• Optimal covariance shrinkage and minimizing error
• Constrained vs unconstrained mean variance portfolios, de-coupled vs integrated, in a managed futures context
• The effect of constraints in limiting models from being “different”
• The practical takeaways about integrated solutions for Advisors and Portfolio Managers
• The value of humility in optimizing for financial markets – knowledge, wisdom and experience
• Stochastic dominance vs t-tests
• Time horizons – size matters
• The Consultant Industry – monthly data vs understanding process
• And much more

 

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

 

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.