Vincent Deluard on the Historical Trajectory of Inflation and Market Implications

May 11, 2022

Vincent Deluard is the Global Macro Strategist for StoneX, where he advises institutional investors on asset allocation and risk management. He joined us for an awesome conversation that covered topics including:

• His early life in France - expectations for public service but ‘saved’ by a scholarship to study abroad
• Bitten by the ‘quantitative bug’ from the very start of his career
• How his macro framework evolved
• Inflection points in the mega trends that have endured for the last 40 years
• Concerns with inflation pre-date the pandemic
• How COVID ‘shrank’ time
• Sample of one – why Japanese stagnation should not be extrapolated as the path for other countries
• The demographic collapse in East Asia
• Views on MMT – analytical tool more than policy framework
• The ‘incestuous’ relationship between central banks and their governments’ treasuries – from the left pocket to the right
• The ‘fairy tale land’ of the Fed’s economic projections
• Inflation as the last painful path to ‘clean up’ excess debt in the system
• US, Europe, China, and Japan – immigration dynamics and long-term prosperity
• Analogues with the post-WW2 and 1970s inflationary periods and why this time is likely different
• The risk that inflation continues to accelerate – the expectation channel
• The ‘kink’ in the Eurodollar curve
• Are there viable alternatives to the US dollar?
• How investors should rethink and broaden their asset allocation approach
• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.

 

*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.